The Week Ahead: Budget kicks the can, but offers stability
Well, after two months of intense speculation and warnings of 幼女视频渢ough choices幼女视频, it turns out the biggest impact of the 2025 Autumn Budget聽will probably be the uncertainty all that speculation generated. Last week幼女视频檚 announcements will have virtually no impact on the economy next year, despite the big headline numbers. That does give a degree of stability, but it also means there幼女视频檚 little reason for the Bank of England (BoE) to cut interest rates further or faster.
It幼女视频檚 now clear Rachel Reeves managed to pull off raising 拢26.1bn in taxes and without breaching her manifesto, spooking financial markets, denting growth or pushing up inflation next year. That was no easy task and deserves credit.
She managed this through two surprises. First, the economic forecasts were much better than expected. The 幼女视频減re-measures幼女视频 forecast, which shows the baseline scenario under current policies before any updates, was just 拢6bn worse than in March. That幼女视频檚 significantly better than the 拢20幼女视频30bn downgrade most people were expecting. This was because even though the OBR downgraded its estimate of productivity growth it was largely offset by increases in its forecasts for wage growth and inflation, which are big positives for tax receipts.
Second, almost all the tax increases are backloaded to the end of the decade. Of the 拢26.1bn headline increase in taxes, just 拢0.7bn of them come into effect next year 幼女视频 the very definition of kicking the can down the road.
Another surprise was the financial markets幼女视频 positive reaction. We幼女视频檇 warned that a significantly backloaded Autumn Budget would not be credible and that financial markets may react badly. Indeed, we have our doubts that the government will follow through on its promise to significantly raise taxes in an election year.
But, gilt yields fell from 4.60% before the Budget to around 4.43% now in a sign of market approval. Our best guess is that markets were more worried about a repeat of last year幼女视频檚 inflation-boosting Budget or a bad reaction from Labour MPs, which could幼女视频檝e seen Rachel Reeves replaced with someone more spendthrift, than the backloading of tax rises. In addition, more than doubling the fiscal headroom to 拢22bn means that, even if all those promised tax rises don幼女视频檛 actually appear, then the Chancellor will still meet her fiscal rules.
What does the Autumn Budget mean for interest rate cuts in 2026?
The combination of better-than-expected forecasts and backloading of tax rises means there幼女视频檚 virtually no impact on the economy next year from the measures announced last week. In fact, there幼女视频檚 a mild positive impact as we get 拢0.7bn in extra taxes, but 拢7bn of extra spending. That should add about 0.1% to demand.
However, the OBR forecasts don幼女视频檛 make pretty reading. The institution downgraded its growth forecasts for every year after this one and revised up its expectation for inflation. What幼女视频檚 more, it expects annual growth in real household disposable income, the best measure of consumers' spending power, to average just 0.4% a year in this parliament due to low productivity and tax rises. That幼女视频檚 the second worst on record behind the previous parliament. That will not set a good foundation for a rebound in consumer spending.
Stronger growth in the near-term means economic pain will be delayed. However, it also reduces the chances the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cuts interest rates next year further than we幼女视频檇 expected. Admittedly, the OBR expects inflation to average 2.5% in 2026 and government policies are set to reduce inflation by around 0.3ppts. While last year幼女视频檚 regulated price hikes will persist into Q1, initially keeping the inflation rate higher at the start of 2026, inflation will fall below 2.5% for the rest of the year. The MPC will most likely look through such one-off downward impacts and focus instead on underlying inflation, which will likely be stickier. As a result, we maintain our call for interest rates to end next year at 3.5%.
What are the risks from the UK Autumn Budget?
The Budget has removed some imminent risks, such as a financial market meltdown or leadership challenge 幼女视频 even if the Chancellor herself hasn幼女视频檛 avoided scrutiny because of claims she overstated the poor state of the UK幼女视频檚 public finances. But, its measures will give us some much-needed stability next year. What幼女视频檚 more, if the bigger fiscal buffer prevents another round of confidence-sapping speculation this time next year, then that will be a major positive. It also puts the UK on a path to more sustainable public finances, which is more than most countries can claim. Whether the government sticks to it is another question.
But, it幼女视频檚 also raised some additional risks. The most obvious is that worries about the Budget (apparently largely unnecessary) cause growth to slump in Q4. Another is that tax receipts underperform the OBR forecasts, which results in the need for further tax increases in the next couple of years. Perhaps most importantly, there were also no new measures announced in the Budget geared towards boosting the UK幼女视频檚 long-term growth rate, despite the government幼女视频檚 rhetoric. This sentence from the is telling: 幼女视频淲e have assessed that none of the policy measures in this Budget have a sufficiently material impact to justify adjusting our post-measures聽potential output forecast."
What幼女视频檚 more, the government still needs to find a way to raise defence spending further. Indeed, with little willingness to curb spending and no signs that the underlying causes of slow growth will be addressed any time soon, we幼女视频檙e likely facing another big tax-raising Budget before long.
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